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| USS Enterprise in Subic |
By Trefor Moss
U.S. President Barack Obama's arrival in the Philippines this April should lend fresh impetus to faltering talks over the deployment of U.S. military forces to Subic Bay, a strategic location overlooking the disputed South China Sea.
The bilateral discussions began last August, but are understood to have stalled over the status of new "temporary" facilities, which would house visiting U.S. forces without contravening a Philippine constitutional ban on permanent foreign military bases in the country.
The latest, fifth round of talks on a proposed "framework agreement" on bilateral security ended on Jan. 31 without resolution, the U.S. Embassy in Manila said.
Manila will be the president's fourth and final stop on his coming regional tour, the White House confirmed on Feb. 12, after Japan, South Korea and Malaysia.
The slow progress of the talks with the Philippine government--an ally under the terms of a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty--has a come as a surprise, given that the two sides share the same end goal, namely the stationing of more U.S. forces in the Philippines.
The Philippines is embroiled in an angry dispute with China over islands in the South China Sea, and wants to increase the U.S.'s involvement in its security affairs, given China's overwhelming military superiority over the Philippines' own, largely obsolete armed forces. The U.S., also with an eye on China, wants to make greater use of military bases in the Philippines as it implements a policy of "rebalancing" to the Asian-Pacific region.
The U.S. Embassy in Manila declined to comment on the substance of the continuing talks, while the Philippine Department of National Defense said it would publish details of the latest round of negotiations in due course.
However, the timing of President Obama's visit to the Philippines will prove fortuitous if it helps to resolve the impasse--or awkward, if it fails to jump-start the negotiations and produce the long-awaited deal.
"The sticking point is control," explained Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute of Political and Electoral Reform in Manila. "The U.S. side is insisting on complete control over [any new facilities], and the Philippines is reluctant because of constitutional reasons. It's a question of symbolism, rather than substance."
Subic Bay was formerly one of the U.S. military's most important naval stations in Asia, until the Philippines approved a new constitution in 1987 that made the stationing of foreign military forces in the country illegal. As a result, the U.S. military left Subic--and the Philippines--in 1992.
A 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement subsequently gave permission for U.S. forces to return, provided they were only "temporarily in the Philippines."
Last year, Juan Ponce Enrile, the Senate minority leader, warned that it wouldn't be so easy for U.S. forces to return.
"I don't know whether you can do that," Mr. Enrile said, when asked about the legality of letting U.S. forces back into Subic Bay, adding that it would "become an issue before the Supreme Court."
However, Manila has shown significant flexibility in its interpretation of the Visiting Forces Agreement. U.S. forces have been stationed "temporarily" in the southern Philippines for more than 12 years to assist in counterterrorism operations against Islamic militant groups linked to al Qaeda, and Mr. Casiple said that the constitutional question "should not be a showstopper," especially in light of Manila's urgent need for military assistance.
China has staged repeated shows of force in the South China Sea, most recently sending a flotilla around the Indonesian island of Java in January in a demonstration of its navy's newfound range. Indonesia's silence on the Chinese mission contrasted with the Philippines' vocal protests over what it regards as Chinese incursions into its territorial waters.
President Obama's arrival in the Philippines would be an important "show of support," he said, and would help focus the minds of the negotiators over the next two months.
"The expectation is that they will find a way," he said, by finding a formula that doesn't compromise Philippine sovereignty, such as locating any new U.S. facilities within a larger area officially controlled by the Armed Forces of the Philippines. The U.S. could also offer more equipment and military assistance as further incentives, he suggested, although Washington pledged $40 million in military aid to Manila as recently as December.
The U.S. has ruled out opening new bases in the Philippines or anywhere else in the Asia-Pacific, preferring to "rotate" forces through selected host countries. In 2011, Australia agreed to host 2,500 U.S. Marines on a rotational basis, for example, while Singapore has also started to host U.S. Navy warships on similar rotational terms.
With those successful precedents in mind, U.S. negotiators will be hoping that the president can announce a newly minted deal with the Philippines when he gets here--and not be forced to negotiate it himself.
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